Superforecasting Summary: Tetlock and Gardner’s Guide to Accurate Prediction

Description

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes.

By reading this summary, you will discover the art of making reliable and rigorous forecasts.

You will also discover that :

many experts give forecasts that are too vague and difficult to verify;
the field of forecasting is sorely lacking in rigorous evaluations;
the best forecasters rely on method and not on innate abilities;
any forecast must be supported by a numerical probability, an assumption with clearly defined terms;
a good forecaster is rigorous, intellectually humble and able to consider a multitude of perspectives.
In the media as well as in government, forecasting plays a central role. They have an impact on all the strategies of leaders. A battery of influential experts is therefore constantly in demand. But how reliable are their diagnoses? Very competent people often make vague or even erroneous estimates. “On the other hand, some less well-known forecasters reveal surprising results. Here is their secret: they don’t have any particular gift, but they do have a method.

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